The ones who truly succeed – the engineers of serendipity – create an outstanding structure for nurturing many loonshots. They are careful gardeners, rather than visionary innovators.
- By the early 2000s, Nokia was selling half the smartphones on the planet.
- In 2004, a handful of excited Nokia engineers created a new kind of phone: internet-ready, with a big color touchscreen display and a high-resolution camera. They proposed another crazy idea to go along with the phone: an online app store. The leadership team shot down both projects.
- Three years later, Steve Jobs unveiled the iPhone.
- The small changes in structure, rather than culture, can transform a rigid team.
진정한 성공을 거둔 사람들, 즉 세렌디피티의 엔지니어들은 많은 러닝샷을 양성할 수 있는 뛰어난 구조를 만들어낸다. 그들은 선견지명이 있는 혁신가라기보다는 신중한 정원사들이다.
P-type LOONSHOTS: a surprising breakthrough in product - a technology that was widely dismissed > before ultimately triumphing
- Deaths from P-type Loonshots tend to be quick and dramatic.
- A flashy new technology appears (streaming video), it quickly displaces what came before (rentals), champions emerge (Netflix, Amazon), and the old guard crumbles (Blockbuster).
P형 LOONSHOTS: 제품의 놀라운 발전 - 궁극적으로 승리하기 전에 널리 무시되었던 기술
S-type LOONSHOTS: a surprising breakthrough in strategy – a new way of doing business, or a new application of an existing product, which involves no new technology
- Deaths from S-type Loonshots tend to be more gradual and less obvious.
- It took three decades for Walmart to dominate retail and variety stores to fade away. And no one could quite figure out what Walmart was doing, or why it kept winning.
- Facebook didn’t invent social networks and Google didn’t invent search, just like Walmart didn’t invent selling stuff cheaply.
- Both succeeded because of small changes in strategy no one thought would amount to much. Both succeeded because of S-type Loonshots.
S-type LOONSHOTS: 전략의 놀라운 돌파구 – 새로운 비즈니스 방식 또는 새로운 기술이 필요 없는 기존 제품의 새로운 적용
If you are a creative or an entrepreneur, learning how to be good at both types of Loonshots can help you expand your idea. It can help you transform something good into something great.
- Google, for example, began with a new algorithm for ranking internet search results, a nice P-type Loonshot. But it was the eighteenth search engine. It added several clever S-type Loonshots to attract advertisers. Those S-type Loonshots helped it grow into the dominant website in the world.
만약 당신이 창조적인 사람이거나 기업가라면, 두 종류의 룬샷을 잘 하는 방법을 배우는 것은 당신의 아이디어를 확장하는데 도움을 줄 수 있다. 좋은 것을 훌륭한 것으로 변화시키는 데 도움을 줄 수 있다.
IBM correctly anticipated a P-type Loonshot and won the battle. But it missed a critical S-type Loonshot, a software standard, and lost the war.
- The collapse of IBM’s legendary 80-year-old hardware business in the 1990s sounds like a classic P-type story. New technology (personal computers) displaces old (mainframes) and wipes out incumbent (IBM). But it wasn’t.
- For decades, IBM dominated computers. its sales in 1981 was more than its next seven competitors combined. (IBM and the Seven Dwarfs)
- IBM jumped on the new PC. IBM owned the computer world, so it outsourced two of the PC components, software and microprocessors, to two tiny companies: Microsoft and Intel.
- IBM soon discovered, however, that individual buyers care more about exchanging files with friends than the brand of their box. And to exchange files easily, what matters is the software and the microprocessor inside that box.
- IBM missed an S-type shift – a change in what customers care about.
IBM은 P형 룬샷을 정확하게 예상해 이 전투에서 승리했다. 그러나 소프트웨어 표준인 S형 룬샷을 놓쳐 전쟁에서 패했다.